Unlike the United States, which has a policy of no use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states, Russia has no such policy. In fact, Russia has a strategic theory called escalate-to-deescalate.

This does not mean that Russia will use such weapons, and deterrence at the strategic level appears to be robust. At the tactical level, however, the situation is different. The 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review ascribed to Russia the view that “the threat of nuclear escalation or even first use of nuclear weapons would serve to de-escalate a conflict on terms favorable to Russia.” Russian military theorists have certainly discussed this idea of “escalating to de-escalate,” though whether it is a part of Russian doctrine is disputed among students of Russian strategy. “Escalating to de-escalate” in a war with NATO would run the serious risk of escalation rather than de-escalation. In a local war with a non-nuclear adversary, however, the small-scale tactical use of nuclear weapons might be a serious temptation, especially if the war were not going according to plan. In short, the impulse to escalate in a tight corner could be strong.

In other words, if the war in Ukraine goes pear-shaped, and I think it is safe to say we are getting close to that point, it would not be outside Russian strategic thinking to pop a smallish nuke somewhere in Ukraine and say to NATO, “stop supplying Ukraine right now or I’ll do the same to you.”

I think we are in the middle of that strategy right now. //

Russia is a nuclear power. Even though the odds of a nuclear weapon surviving 30 years of Russian-quality maintenance, we have to assume some of them still work. That fact is not going to change. That said, the fact that Russia has nukes and is becoming increasingly casual about threatening to use them is no reason for us to engage in submissive urination when he does. Under no circumstances can we allow ourselves to be intimidated into submission because Putin is making public noises about what he might do. If we go that route, we will find ourselves abandoning all the NATO states bordering Russia and more. Because once he finds he can get his way using this tactic, he will not stop.

What we do know is that there is no reason to believe that any moral or humanitarian case will persuade Putin not to pop a nuke on Kiev or some other Ukrainian city. What we have an obligation to do is spell out very clearly, in private, that if he does use a nuclear weapon, we reserve the right to retaliate with a similar weapon on a similar target inside Russia. And we will hunt to the ends of the earth anyone who had any role in its use, from Putin down to the guy who changed the flat tire on the vehicle used to transport the warhead and kill them.

My personal suspicion is that Putin and his nuclear threats are a lot like Cleavon Little in Blazing Saddles. They only work if we buy into the framework Putin is constructing.

Belarus’ army is 20,000 men and not trained to the exacting standards of the Russian Army. It would be mauled by Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces and have a minimal impact on the war.

The real effect of Belarus joining the fight would be an expansion of the conflict that would be unlikely to remain limited to Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

One of the most important, two-hour telephone calls of the post-Cold War took place on Friday, March 18, 2022. U.S. President Joseph Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. The discussion laid out the US and Chinese positions on the conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which is now in its 23rd day.

The United States noted our position — that we want to draw the conflict to an end by compelling Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin to abandon his invasion of Ukraine, through a regime of economic sanctions against Russia and military assistance to the Ukrainian government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. //

Tonight, while Mr. Putin may want to divide and conquer these two, highly co-dependent national interests, he has further to go to convince either of his position. It’s time to for Russia to stop believing its own propaganda and start listening to what the world is sobering up to.

Could a lot still go wrong here? Yes. That’s the scary part. But, it seems neither the US nor China want it to. And out of that, it may be possible for Ukraine and Russia to take the bell off the tiger.

The Ukraine crisis has brought unconscionable suffering to the Ukrainian people, and it revealed some of the harm authoritarian regimes can cause. If there is one positive outcome of this crisis, Taiwan and Japan have begun to take China’s military threat seriously. The steps they are taking to strengthen their defense may keep the peace in the region by deterring China from launching military strikes against Taiwan.

Nothing can make up for the senseless loss of life and homes, but if there is anything to celebrate alongside the dogged determination of the Ukrainians in holding the Russian army back, it is this: Putin has himself put to rest the idea that he is some kind of infallible genius. After many decades spent building up his influence, he has entirely destroyed his credibility with politicians, business, and the broader public. In the end, Putin has achieved what no one thought possible: a Ukraine defiant, a West united, and a Russia humbled.

Regime change, wrapped in all of its fantastical failure, is making a comeback in Washington, and no one seems to notice or even care. //

Sadly, history tells us how the war in Ukraine will end if we are lucky. Ukraine will be destroyed. Russia will take parts of its territory. Kyiv will join the European Union and NATO but not officially, integrating itself economically and getting billions in weapons to deter another Russian invasion. Russia will be massively weakened and completely dependent on China for its economic survival, selling anything it can to Beijing, including its best weapons, to survive.

What if we aren’t lucky, and the war drags on for months? Putin will keep upping the pressure, and we will do the same. With every bomb Russia drops on Ukraine, the moral outrage will keep rising and Western nations will give Ukraine more and more arms and sanction Russia in every way possible to the point that Russia will come close to collapse.

At some point, when Putin sees the Ukraine crisis as not a giant mistake but instead a fight for his own survival, true hell will break loose.

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has faltered so far thanks to military, supply and tactical blunders – but the Russians are still capable of crushing their defiant opponents.

Chinese officials warns that nation’s winter wheat condition could be “worst in history”. //

While oil prices are exploding, and petroleum products are certainly a necessity in modern life, there is a potential developing crisis that could impact the global economy even more than energy.

As Russia continues to pound Ukraine, it is important to note that the region is responsible for about 1/3 of the world’s grain supplies. //

The stability of regions even more dependent on Russian-Ukrainian wheat is threatened.

Cairo relies on large volumes of heavily subsidized imports to ensure sufficient as well as affordable supplies of bread and vegetable oil for its 105 million citizens. Securing those supplies has led Egypt to become the world’s largest importer of wheat and among the world’s top 10 importers of sunflower oil. In 2021, Cairo was already facing down food inflation levels not seen since the Arab Spring civil unrest a decade earlier that toppled the government of former President Hosni Mubarak.

After eight years of working assiduously to put Egypt’s economic house back in order, the government of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is now similarly vulnerable to skyrocketing food costs that are reaching budget-breaking levels. //

War – check.
Pestilence – check.
Famine – This looks like the next horseman lining up to make an appearance.

But the good news: No mean tweets. We can take comfort in that.

I feel shame that we came to this country. I don’t know why we were doing it. We knew very little. We brought sorrow to this land.

Russians are worried, she said, not only about external isolation, but that a new Iron Curtain is about to be imposed internally by the Putin regime. She thinks a lot about the ancient Jewish question: When is it time to go? New events that feel old: If you’re looking for a possible summary of Jewish life, that’s one.

Yet, while people are going so far as to ban cats and cutting opera singers, the Biden Administration is still buying Russian oil while cutting our ability. They’re still using a Russian negotiator in what is sure to be yet another horrible Biden mistake: coming to a new Iran nuclear deal which, as we reported, is very close (and very awful).

Ted Cruz
@tedcruz
This is absurd.

BOYCOTT Russian oil & gas.

Leave the cats alone.
The Washington Post
@washingtonpost
International Cat Federation bans Russian cats from competitions
https://wapo.st/3Ca0pHS
12:51 AM · Mar 4, 2022

If there is an off-ramp that might prevent what now appears to be the inevitable reduction of Ukraine to rubble, then Western leaders should not block it with bellicose talk and weak half-measures.

Trump not only successfully deterred Russia from acting against Ukraine, he effectively deterred a lot of bad behavior across the planet. //

Arecent Harvard-Harris poll found that 62 percent of Americans believe that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if Donald Trump were still in the Oval Office. As former senior intelligence officials under President Trump, we agree with that view. //

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 when George W. Bush was president. Russia took Crimea in 2014 when Barack Obama was president. Russia has now invaded Ukraine with Joe Biden as president. However, when Donald Trump was president, Russia did not seize territory from any of its neighbors. //

We believe the long answer begins with these ten ways that Donald Trump projected American strength and kept the bad guys in check:

Rebuilt the American Military
Crusaded for American Energy Dominance
Set the Tone by Launching Surgical Missile Strikes in Syria in Early 2017
Developed Strong Relationships with Middle Eastern Nations Based on Mutual Interests
Was Ruthless with the Taliban While Winding Down the Afghanistan War
Crushed the ISIS Caliphate
Demonstrated a Consistent Willingness to Take out the Bad Guys
Stood Up to China
Strategically Used Unpredictability as an Asset in Foreign Affairs
Advanced Tough Russia Policies and Provided Lethal Aid to Ukraine while Maintaining an Open Dialogue

The ability to mobilize civil society, through media in particular, can tip the scales towards victory or defeat as much as bombs and tanks.

Fortunately, the United States also maintains a nuclear triad that can strike all of Russia, providing a strong deterrent to a Russian attack.

The difference is that while Russia has modernized its nuclear forces about 90% of the way through, the U.S. still relies on platforms built during the Cold War. For instance, the U.S. is still squeezing life out of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile that was designed in 1960.

Programs to replace these outdated capabilities with modern systems are just getting underway, and each year must overcome opposition from far-left members of Congress. //

Bottom line: As much as U.S. policymakers might like to wish away nuclear weapons from existence, unfortunately, the enemy gets a vote. Putin’s recent inflammatory rhetoric, nuclear saber-rattling, and military actions in Ukraine are proof of the need for a strong, modern U.S. nuclear force.

Even if you are the most committed Putin fluffer getting paid by the hour to plague political blogs and post nonsensical statements about Russia’s awesomeness, you have to admit that nearly 2,100 casualties over seven days of a “cakewalk” (to coin a phrase) operation are a lot. That is 300 troops per day (the equivalent of a Russian infantry battalion). When you consider that most of the casualties will come from the front-line troops, and that is especially true in this war as Ukraine has demonstrated an inability to hit Russian rear echelons with anything other than a handful of drones, the loss of a few hundred soldiers can take on immense importance.

Let me take a moment to explain. I commanded an infantry company in a Light Infantry Division (read the history of how we came to be here). The division had a personnel limit of 10,000 soldiers. //

When a Light Infantry Division deployed, it had 3,375 men on the front line and 6,625 troops supporting, supplying, and commanding them. At the level of wastage the Russians are experiencing in Ukraine, an American Light Infantry division would cease to be combat effective in less than a week. By the way, two days ago, I estimated the Russians would lose at least 100-200 men per day, and I was poked fun at by the pro-Russian trolls that have started infesting our comments list. Right now, I feel pretty good about my estimate. //

The US invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, and the “official” war closed with the fall of Baghdad (population 7 million versus 3 million in Kiev) //

This is a total of 20 days. While I can’t find a source to do a day-by-day count of casualties (the graph on page 11 of the link indicates about 30 dead and 130 wounded in March and April combined), the US military suffered from March 2003 through December 2003 468 killed and 2,416 wounded //

It is doubtful that an army with 498 dead has only had 1,600 wounded. That number should be around 2,500 and probably over. UNLESS Russian medical care is so inept that many men who should have survived died.

I would submit that if the Russian casualty list is high enough to admit to over 2,000, the actual number is higher.

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark gives his insights on the West’s response to Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine and what the US should do now.

Musk steps to the plate with essential tech support for assets threatened by Russia after its invasion didn’t go as swiftly as originally planned.

Thousand Barrels per Day
U.S. Net Imports from Russia of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products