A Simple Test for the Extent of Vote Fraud with Absentee Ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election: Georgia and Pennsylvania Data

25 Pages Posted: 29 Dec 2020 Last revised: 30 Dec 2020
John R. Lott

US Department of Justice

Date Written: December 21, 2020
Abstract

This study provides measures of vote fraud in the 2020 presidential election. It first compares Fulton county’s precincts that are adjacent to similar precincts in neighboring counties that had no allegations of fraud to isolate the impact of Fulton county’s vote-counting process (including potential fraud). In measuring the difference in President Trump’s vote share of the absentee ballots for these adjacent precincts, we account for the difference in his vote share of the in-person voting and the difference in registered voters’ demographics. The best estimate shows an unusual 7.81% drop in Trump’s percentage of the absentee ballots for Fulton County alone of 11,350 votes, or over 80% of Biden’s vote lead in Georgia. The same approach is applied to Allegheny County in Pennsylvania for both absentee and provisional ballots. The estimated number of fraudulent votes from those two sources is about 55,270 votes.

Second, vote fraud can increase voter turnout rate. Increased fraud can take many forms: higher rates of filling out absentee ballots for people who hadn’t voted, dead people voting, ineligible people voting, or even payments to legally registered people for their votes. However, the increase might not be as large as the fraud if votes for opposing candidates are either lost, destroyed, or replaced with ballots filled out for the other candidate. The estimates here indicate that there were 70,000 to 79,000 “excess” votes in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Adding Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, the total increases to up to 289,000 excess votes.

“The 2020 presidential election was, in several targeted battleground states, an unconstitutional electoral exercise. Even putting aside evidence of significant fraud, virtually none of which received a hearing by our courts, events leading up to and including the November national election constituted a radical and grave departure from the federal electoral system adopted by the framers of the Constitution and the state ratification conventions.” //

During the Constitutional Convention, Levin noted, the Founders discussed several proposals for selecting a president.

“Should the president be directly elected by the people? That proposal was rejected out of concern that such a purely democratic process could be hijacked by a temporary majority.

“Should the president be chosen in the first instance from within the national legislature? That proposal was also rejected on grounds of separation of powers.

“Should the judiciary play a role in the selection of the president? That idea was dispensed with as being the most objectionable, as judges were to be the least political of all public officials.”

The importance of the Electoral College.

“The framers deliberatively and with much thought created the Electoral College process,” Levin explained, “in which the people and their elected legislatures — both state and national — would play important roles.”

“But the electoral process rested first and foremost on the state legislatures directing how the electors would be chosen. The reason: While rejecting the direct election of a president, the framers concluded that the state legislatures were closest to the people in their respective states and would be the best representatives of their interests.” //

“After the 2016 election, the Democrat Party, its various surrogate groups, and eventually the Biden campaign unleashed hundreds of lawsuits and an unrelenting lobbying campaign in key states that had previously been won by President Trump, taking unconstitutional measures intended to stop President Trump from winning these states in the 2020 election, thereby literally undoing this critical constitutional provision.”

Ari Fleischer
@AriFleischer
This makes no sense. A judge (the sister of Stacey Abrams) ruled that when someone tells the US Postal Service they have moved they still can vote from their old address.

Rules have no meaning any more. This is nuts.

The Electoral College remains an integral key to preserving the decentralization and federalism that underlie the U.S. Constitution.

One of the reasons that folks on the right have been so upset over the Nov. 3 election is not just that many believe it was stolen from President Donald Trump, but also the concern that if you don’t fully answer/resolve the questions that have been raised about the election, then you can’t be assured that it won’t happen again.

A recent USA Today poll found that fully 78% of Republicans don’t believe that Joe Biden was legitimately elected. While the media wants to blame that on President Donald Trump, as indeed they blame everything, it has far more to do with the media failure to actually address the questions raised, dismissing sworn affidavits and the failure to comply with state laws. That’s a big issue when you fail to address the concerns of that many people.

After four years of endless accusations from the media and the Democrat Party that Donald Trump wasn’t really elected and Russia stole the election for him, those who are raising questions about the legitimacy of the 2020 election are being told to sit down and shut up.

But as Senator Hawley (R-Mo.) recently said, “74 million Americans are not going to shut up, and telling them that their views don’t matter and that their concerns don’t matter and they should just be quiet is not a recipe for success in this country. It’s not a recipe for the unity that I hear now the other side is suddenly so interested in, after years—YEARS—of trying to delegitimize President Donald Trump.”

But make no mistake: questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election isn’t about revenge. Republicans have been fighting to preserve the integrity of our elections for years, and have met pushback from elected Democrats every step of the way. We have to speak up louder than ever now because the evidence is glaring—and if they get away with it now they will be emboldened to continue.

This is a fight we have to fight, regardless of the outcome. We can accept a legitimate defeat. But a stolen election, we cannot. Without a proper audit of the elections with dubious results, we’ll never know for sure, and without knowing for sure, we shouldn’t assume the results were legitimate.

More than 1,700 Georgians illegally cast two ballots in 2020 — including the presidential race — but their fraudulent votes weren’t canceled out.

One of these strategies being considered is for a senator or member of Congress to object to the votes submitted by the half-dozen or so states where fraud or gross incompetence was the rule of the day. //

The Democrats are a bit fearful of the vote because their margin in the House is very small, and there is no guarantee their Senate caucus would not have defections.

On the whole, the upside for the GOP far exceeds any downside.

The VichyCons will have this vote tattooed on their forehead forever.

Pressing a fight will keep faith with the GOP base that came out in record numbers to vote in 2020 and will serve as a rallying point for 2022.

Joe Biden’s presidency will be publicly flagged as fraudulent.

The issue of electoral integrity will be shoved to the forefront of the national agenda because, without a reliable means of conducting elections, we cease to exist as a Republic.

“This is not about airing your grievances,” Peters pushed back. “I don’t know what rabbit hole you’re going down.”

Johnson blasted Peters for his denial, where a shouting match ensued.

“You talked about Russian disinformation,” Johnson repeated, before moving on to grant Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul the floor.

Johnson’s Wednesday lecture comes as the committee opened up a hearing to consider the voting irregularities that took place in the recent November election which featured record turnout in the form of mail-in voting.

Sen. Paul called for hearings that included state lawmakers to shore up security in subsequent elections and criticized those dismissing claims of voter fraud entirely.

“We can’t just say it didn’t happen,” Paul said at the hearing with the nation’s former cybersecurity chief Christopher Krebs. “The fraud happened. The election in many ways was stolen, and the only way it will be fixed is by in the future reinforcing the laws.”

Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley complained that after four years of non-stop accusations by Democrats that President Donald Trump was an agent of the Russian government, they had the audacity to condemn Republicans investigating pandemic irregularities at the ballot box.

“The whole Russia nonsense was based on we now know lies from a Russian spy,” Hawley said. “After four years of that, being told that the last election was fake and that Donald Trump wasn’t really elected and that Russia intervened, after four years of that, now these same people are told you just sit down and shut up. If you have any concerns about election integrity, you’re a ‘nut case’… That is not a recipe for success in this country.”

DeeInFL BlkConservative
a day ago edited
Biden only won 17% of the counties Obama won. I’m supposed to believe a population explosion occurred only in those areas? It will be interesting what the 2020 census says. Biden not only did worse in every city than Obama but worse than Clinton. Her numbers were worse than Obama. The only cities that Biden did better than Obama was in the swing states where it counted. These area are overwhelming black voters. I would like to know who the black voter was that wasn’t excited to vote for the first black President but decided that a white 78 year old man who has been in politics for 49 years and authored the crime bill that put their family members and friends in jail motivated them to vote. I wish the media would find these black voters and interview them. I’m curious for an answer. Also Biden received less than 90% of the black vote making it nearly impossible for a Democrat to win. He received less than 60% of the Hispanic vote making it implausible to win in NV, NM and AZ. Since the 1800’s, no President who won FL and OH lost the election sans JFK. JFK’s presidential win has long had alleged corruption and fraud, especially in Chicago under Mayor Daley. Entire news stories and books have been written about it. Why were there over 480,000 votes for Biden and no down ballot votes in the swing states? There were 10’s of thousands in GA where the Senate race was very important and critical to who will control the Senate. They will be critical to passing legislation for Biden’s agenda. Why not vote for the Democrat Senators and Representatives to make sure Biden can get things done? Yet Trump only had 538 ballots in GA that were Trump only. Were the Democrat voters too ignorant to realize that they could be handing control to the Republicans in Congress and thereby stonewalling Biden’s agenda? It’s a fair question to ask since liberals have for the past 4 years called Trump voters stupid.

While many are not willing to admit it, the Texas election lawsuit was the last real chance that President Donald Trump had to stall the official declaration of Joe Biden as the next President of the United States.

The lawsuit itself was doomed to fail for multiple Constitutional reasons, but perhaps the biggest flaw in it is that it was a group of outside states seeking to overturn election results in a handful of other states based on the fact that those states changed the rules in the middle of those elections going on. Critics of the lawsuit were right in saying that would be a dangerous precedent because that opens the door for ultra-progressive states to try and use the courts to force their values on conservative states.

But the idea behind the lawsuit was the correct one. States should not be allowed to change the rules in the middle of the game, and if there is one fight that needs to continue beyond this election, it is a fight to ensure that our elections systems are as trustworthy as possible and that the policies and procedures in place to run an election within a state are as fair to the voters as possible. //

This is not about overturning the election, mind you. Not at this point. There does not seem to be a legal avenue anymore to do that, and many of the legal avenues conservatives were led to believe existed were badly mishandled by the President’s lawyers and his allies. Instead, this needs to be about overturning the idea that states are allowed to change their election rules on a whim.

That is, I think, the real scandal here. That state officials are making changes to statutory election laws without their legislative branches being involved (in Georgia’s case, I believe the governor was given the power to make changes by the legislature, so the water is a little murkier there). There is, especially after this election, a considerable lack of trust in our electoral process. That has to change, and it needs to start with voters knowing their votes will count.

After their party’s presidential nominee lost in the Electoral College, some House members lined up to object to and challenge the results during the Jan. 6 joint session of Congress to count the electoral votes.

House Democrats made 11 objections. In each case, then-outgoing Vice President Joe Biden—presiding over the session in his role as Senate president—asked if the objection had a Senate sponsor.

Then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she didn’t encourage the objection, but would “support” the objections from her caucus. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., demanded a senator join the challenge against certifying the results.

With no senators backing the objections, members of Congress counted the votes, and Biden said, “It’s over,” gaveling the official end of the 2016 election with a victory, giving it to President Donald Trump.

We conclude that the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election results. The system intentionally generates an enormously high number of ballot errors. The electronic ballots are then transferred for adjudication. The intentional errors lead to bulk adjudication of ballots with no oversight, no transparency, and no audit trail. This leads to voter or election fraud. Based on our study, we conclude that The Dominion Voting System should not be used in Michigan. We further conclude that the results of Antrim County should not have been certified.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled Monday that residents, not county clerks, are responsible for determining whether their voter status warrants an absentee ballot submission without providing voter ID. //

In a unanimous ruling, the Wisconsin Supreme Court overruled election officials who implemented their own amendments to state law, arguing that the state Democratic governor’s stay-home order used at least in part to justify the changes — which was also shut down by the high bench this spring — did not render residents indefinitely confined and therefore did not warrant an exemption from providing ID.

“County clerks are not to interpret Wisconsin’s election laws and make declarations based on those interpretations,” Chief Justice Patience Roggensack wrote. //

comes the same day the high bench upheld the results of the November contest granting the state’s 10 electoral votes for former Vice President Joe Biden following a razor-thin 20,000 vote victory. The court argued in a 4-3 decision that the president brought his case to the court far too late for no reason other than to manipulate the outcome in favor of the Republican incumbent.

“The issues raised in this case, had they been pressed earlier, could have been resolved before the election,” Justice Brian Hagedorn wrote. “The challenges by the Campaign in this case … come long after the last play or even the last game; the Campaign is challenging the rulebook adopted before the season began.”

As the vote counting for the 2020 Presidential Election continues, various facts suggest rampant frauds in Joe Biden’s votes. So does mathematics in terms of the votes from precincts.

Benford’s law or the first-digit law, is used to check if a set of numbers are naturally occurring or manually fabricated. It has been applied to detect the voting frauds in Iranian 2009 election and various other applications including forensic investigations.

An elections supervisor in Coffee County, Georgia, demonstrated in recent videos posted online how Dominion Voting Systems voting software allows votes to be changed through an “adjudication” process. The process allows the operator to add vote marks to a scanned ballot as well as invalidate vote marks already on the ballot.

Adjudication should only serve to resolve issues of voters marking ballots incorrectly, such as filling the bubbles in a way that doesn’t clearly show who he or she voted for. Yet it appears a substantial number of ballots went through that process, at least in some Georgia counties.

Monday essentially will be the real presidential Election Day, or is scheduled to be, as electors gather in their respective state capitols to cast votes.

When voters pick their candidate for president on Election Day every four years, as well as in early and mail-in voting this year, they actually choose a slate of electors associated with a candidate.

Each of those electors later casts his or her vote for president on behalf of the state and according to its election results.

In past presidential election years, the day the Electoral College convenes to vote goes largely ignored, as most of the public stops paying attention after Election Day.

What recourse do one or more states have in the face of evidence that one or more other states have failed to produce — intentionally or by negligence — an election process and ballot count with integrity?

If the Supreme Court is not a forum where such disputes can be aired and resolved, what forum is there? Congress is controlled by the same partisanship that is said to be the cause of the irregularities at the state and local level. //

I have concerns that the Justices will view these matters as nonjusticiable — meaning that while there may be validity in the claims raised by Texas, the claims are political disputes between the partisan branches which they must resolve outside the judicial branch.

What other means might exist for Texas to resolve its claims is where the difficulty sets in.

Timeline of events on the night of Nov. 3 at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta

Texas argues that the case ‘presents constitutional questions of immense national consequences,’ namely that the 2020 election suffered from serious constitutional irregularities.