If the left had their way, the economy would remain shut down through Election Day.  //

In early March, when various plans of dealing with the coronavirus were being debated, the choices were shown to us via a curve. Two extremes were presented to us. In the first scenario, we could go on with business as usual and the curve would nearly immediately turn upward and would peak quickly. It would also fall as fast as it rose. The obvious disadvantage to this choice is that the hospitals would be crushed trying to provide care for such a huge influx of patients at one time.

The second option, and the one the U.S. ultimately chose, was to shut down the economy and self-quarantine, the goal being to flatten the curve. The benefit to this plan was that our hospitals and health care professionals would not be overwhelmed.

And, as we moved through it, we were told that scientists would have more time to find an effective therapy to fight the virus and to ramp up testing.

The number of lives lost was said to be approximately the same under the two plans, but the deaths would be accelerated under the first scenario. //

One of the site’s editors, Michael Fumento, explains why the spike in new cases won’t lead to a subsequent spike in deaths.

“Death rates are higher at the start of an outbreak for the simple reason that the disease claims the low-hanging fruit first. This, he says, is known as Farr’s Law,” says Fumento. //

The latest CDC data show that those aged 65 and older account for 80% of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. But that age group makes up only 16% of the population. At the other end of the spectrum, those under age 35 comprise 45% of the population but account for a tiny0.8% of COVID-19 deaths.

Not only has the disease already claimed many of the most vulnerable in this country, there are also millions who now have antibodies.

The combination means that even if there are lots of new cases going forward, the death toll is likely to be far less severe than it has been.

The media thinks we don't understand arithmetic. //

The truth is that new hospitalizations of people coming in for serious coronavirus infections are actually extremely low. What they are actually counting are the extra people coming in for all of the delayed health care caused by the lockdown. But thanks to universal testing in hospitals, they are discovering more asymptomatic cases than ever before, which had nothing to do with the original purpose of the hospital stay. Thus, they are blaming the fallout of the lockdown on the easing of the lockdown! //

The total number of “positive” COVID-19 patients currently using beds in the hospital system is high. Now you might wonder how cumulative numbers could be so high if the new daily intake is so low? //

The cumulative number chart, on the other hand, counts any “positive or suspected inpatient COVID-19 patients.” Now that the number of people coming into hospitals in general, for any reason, is much higher than during the peak of the epidemic and also testing has become standard, they are likely counting anyone who tests positive as a COVID-19 patient in that chart, even if they came in for chest pains or trauma. //

How can it be that the same government website showing literally no more than five new COVID-19 admissions a day this week also shows record emergency room COVID-positive patients? The answer is that the virus is much more widespread, asymptomatic, and less deadly than it was before. The ER patients are coming in, as the Arizona state health director, Dr. Cara Christ, said, because of the bottleneck of much-needed care and serious ailments that were ignored during the lockdown. All but the few who actually came to the ER because of COVID-19 symptoms likely never knew they had it. This is why we are not seeing a big spike of deaths in any of the states where the media is warning about an increase in detected cases.

The very states that are seeing increases in hospitalizations are the ones that barely had patients – COVID-19 or otherwise – for six weeks because the virus didn’t hit hard but the panic and suspension of certain procedures caused the admissions to plummet (unlike in New York, for example, where there were enough COVID-19 patients to fill hospitals). Now that the lockdown is over, states like Texas, Arizona, California, and North Carolina have many more people coming in to hospitals than in April. Paradoxically, it makes sense that there will be more people testing positive now than even during the peak, especially because testing is universal and rapid. //

The media, as always, are engaging in headline panic news and fudging math that proves the exact opposite of their headlines. It’s similar to what they are doing with accusations of executive force, in light of George Floyd’s death, against black criminals while ignoring the fact that black criminals commit an even greater share of violent crime, which proves shooting of white criminals is even more common per capita. They think we don’t understand arithmetic.

And speaking of Minneapolis, if small-scale reopening in these other states led to a spike in the virus, then don’t you think jam-packed protests beginning over two weeks ago in Minneapolis would have caused a spike, rather than a drop, in hospitalizations?

Not adding up //

The short story? No. We’ve not seen a serious uptick in U.S. cases (or deaths). Between June 1st and today (June 14th), total U.S. cases (per Johns Hopkins University) have increased from 1,790,191 to 2,074,526, with an average increase in new cases of 1.2% per day. (For frame of reference, as of April 1, we were averaging a 14-15% increase in new cases each day; as of May 1, we were averaging a 3-4% increase in new cases each day.)

If we’re experiencing a spike, that average should be higher over the past week, right? Between June 7 and June 14, total cases have increased from 1,920,061 to 2,074,526, with an average increase in new cases of 1.1% per day. (I do have to add a caveat — over the past two days, we’ve averaged a 1.25% increase per day. But two days does not a trend make — and recall, those news stories announcing a resurgence in cases came out earlier in the week and reportedly resulted in the market panic.)