he closure of Niger’s airspace dramatically widens the area over which most commercial flights between Europe and southern Africa cannot fly. Flights must already take a detour of sorts around Libya and Sudan.

Sudan’s current ban on flights went into effect in late July, but the airspace has been effectively closed since mid-April 2023 when two factions of the country’s military government escalated to armed conflict. Multiple European countries, including Germany, France, and the UK, as well as the US and Canada, prohibit their civil aircraft from operating in Libyan airspace (the Tripoli FIR).

With Niger’s airspace now off limits as well, airlines flying between Europe and southern Africa will need to reroute and add 1000 or more extra kilometers to their flights, increasing the amount of fuel each flight will need and the flight time.

Operations are slow, but the cause is not a lack of supplies; it is the insane use of mines by the Russians. As an aside, when you’re using the volume of mines the Russians are, it shows that they have no plans to counterattack in that area because they’d be caught in their minefields.

The hope for a Third Army-style ramble to the sea is probably past, but I think the measured, careful light infantry advance in the southern area will carry the day.

Reports that there has been a decrease in artillery support around Bakhmut and the willingness to give ground near Kupiansk could be significant. It is a sign that the Ukrainian high command is not trying to fight everywhere and that the resources that could make life easier on the troops in those two areas are needed elsewhere.

ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
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the evolution of global nuclear weapons: 1950-2022:
0:52 / 0:52
4:01 PM · Aug 8, 2023

Simon Ateba
@simonateba
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BREAKING: After years of discrimination and targeting, I just filed my First Amendment Rights lawsuit against @whitehouse and the @PressSec Karine Jean-Pierre. //

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