So what does today’s Politico offering signal? Well, that Pres. Trump might actually win (Ya think?), so there must be some “hidden” causes that are going to contribute to that outcome.

Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation.

[Cleaning off computer screen of coffee, and wiping nose] //

Public polls are propaganda. They are meant to shape public opinion and influence turnout. They reflect NOTHING about reality. That is because the final polling results all depend on what “weight” the pollster gives to certain demographic components of the poll data, and the weighting drives the outcome in terms of the numbers. The most common example, practiced for years by these sham pollsters, was simply including more Democrat voters in the final poll than historical analysis of voter turnout suggests will be the case. So if historical analysis says Democrat registered voters will be 37% of the electorate, the pollster includes 41% in sampling. He then does the opposite with GOP voters, and voila — you get the Democrat candidate with a lead in the race. //

Flagging “clear warning signs” for Biden, one prominent strategist circulated a memo among Democrats earlier this month citing increasing registration of white, noncollege educated voters — President Donald Trump’s base demographic — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. There is no precedent for Trump overcoming such a large polling deficit this close to the election, the strategist wrote. “And yet … ”

You mean the same reason Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania over Clinton in 2016 might still be the reason why Trump ends up beating Dementia Joe in 2020? //

Seriously — I have not seen any report on this Democrat strategist memo about an increase in registration by non-college educated white voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The fact that the strategist would mention this variable is — to me — close to a “white flag of surrender” on the race. //

Here’s the nightmare part that was recognized by the author and political analyst last year.

[W]hat if Trump represents not a last gasp of cultural and racial revanchism but a new wave? What if the trickle of white men who voted for the first time in years in Wisconsin in 2016, despite widespread predictions that Trump’s candidacy was doomed, is followed in 2020 by a wave of previously nonvoting white males who conclude that Trump’s brand of tribal aggression is at last something worth voting for?

The universe of nonvoters is vast. Nationwide, 4 in 10 of those eligible did not vote in 2016. According to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, more than 21 million nonvoters in 2016 were non-college-educated white men, Trump’s base. In Wisconsin … 459,000 non-college-educated white men didn’t vote in 2016. Trump won non-college-educated white men nationwide by an astounding 50 points. A modest rise in their turnout in key states in 2020 could swamp the Democratic nominee.

This dynamic is not limited to Wisconsin. This dynamic is why Pennsylvania is not really in play even though the press needs to pretend it is in order to keep Democrat hopes alive.