I’m reminded of a different life, ages ago, when a statistics professor of mine made the statement “Statistics don’t lie, but statisticians do.” The CDC might not be lying, but its exaggeration of the data and its relevance to the US health situation certainly borders uncomfortably close on deceit. The picture the CDC seeks to paint is that its whiplash-inducing U-turn over the last week was the result of sound scientific evidence – but the evidence is neither extensive nor does it unanimously point towards what the CDC cherry-picked from it (without, of course, mentioning as caveats the reasons why those pieces of evidence might not apply to the current situation. The data, quite simply, does not support the bold assertions of the CDC. There are perhaps two findings that support an increased risk for young adults with fewer or no comorbidities from Delta, and some evidence suggesting that, and that Delta might be slightly more infectious.

What the data shows is that – contrary to the CDC’s clumsy messaging – vaccines work, and while this new increased risk to young adults should encourage vaccinations among that age group, there is no need to advocate for extreme mitigation based on overstated evidence and exaggerated risks.