As always, the implications of an event are more significant than the finite action. For instance, the successful attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge has greatly complicated the Russian defense of occupied Kherson and, I think, will feature heavily in the eventual Russian evacuation of that province.

A successful attack on a heavily defended target like Sevastopol has to shake the Russian Black Sea Fleet and its command structure. An unknown number of unmanned vehicles were able to prosecute an attack in what may be a first in the history of warfare. No matter what the damage was, the fact that it happened is important. It is also important to note that Ukraine will have learned more about carrying out such an attack than Russia will have learned about preventing it. The Black Sea Fleet had a major command shake-up after the Moskva was lost; it is fairly safe to predict that it will have another one after this fiasco.

The attack shows that the Black Sea Fleet is not secure even in its home anchorage. This anchorage will become less safe as Ukraine’s technical capabilities increase.