lhw | November 27, 2021 at 12:16 pm
The AMO is well known and at least partially understood. It is a 70+ year cycle in which warm water is pumped up to the Arctic. The exact cause is perhaps not well understood, but it appears to sync with solar activity. There are some thoughts that the heat engine is being driven by clouds in the Arctic which change the albedo. The last minimum was the 1970s, previous one was around 1905. Most recent max was around 2012. We are now on the downtrend. The Arctic ice cover has increased in each of the past five years. It is now within 1 sigma of the mean of the past 40 years.
There is a real problem with a lot of things. One of the biggest is making measurements starting in about 1980 during the uptrend of the ΑΜΟ. It is like making measurements from february to july and then predicting that we will be all incinerated by Christmas. The other problem is measuring temperature in urban areas where the changes in hydrology, albedo, and energy dumping corrupt any temperature measurements.
Expect it to get gradually cooler through 2045 or so. The northeast passage should be frozen up a bit before 2030. In a thousand years, we will have to rely on solar energy and nuclear energy for our energy in general. We have used up the stored solar energy of fossil fuels. Rushing headlong into it at the moment for the wrong reasons is going to be a disaster in ten years or so. //
alaskabob. | November 27, 2021 at 3:56 pm
We shall see on the oil. If we ever cannot drill it, we will synthesize it. Long hydrocarbon chains are just too useful. They are a nice way to store energy in a stable configuration for long periods of time not to mention being the feedstock to all sorts of other stuff.
I wonder if the usual idjets who are against ng understand what that is used for commercially. You steam reform ch4 to create ch3oh (methanol. You then take the methanol and turn it into formaldehyde which you use to make building materials like plywood. Live in a house? You need ng to build it these days. That is just the start of stuff. Eat food? Well gosh gee. More steam reforming to create H2 and then pound it together with N2 to make NH3. Corn loves ammonia fertilizer.
Oh well…. //
2smartforlibs. | November 27, 2021 at 1:09 pm
No, this is one of the shorter cycles. See: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/11/23/leif-svalgaard-responds-to-willie-soon/ This is the longer cycle that is shorter than 100 years. There is also a cycle at about 210 years and 900 years if you look at the fossil record. The Milankovitch cycle is tens of thousands of years and is driven by the change in the earth’s orbit, not the radiation from the sun. The Milankovitch cycle has its shortest period at about 100K years.
