The second data point is this: we’re already in the second wave.

Why do I say that?

The current policies are all predicated on the idea that Wuhan virus emerged in a big way in the United States in late-February/early-March. //

But now we know for a scientific fact that is not true. The first fatality with Wuhan virus in the US (I say with rather than from because the actual cause of death was a heart attack) happened on February 6. The consensus is that this was a ‘community’ based infection as the dead person had no history of overseas travel or using cruise ships. //

this moves the date of a significant influx of Wuhan virus from the late February time frame back to early January at the absolute latest. And that meshes with the stories we had in November-December about an especially hard flu season. If, as it now seems, what we were experiencing in November was the initial onslaught of Wuhan that no one recognized, what we are reacting to now is the ‘second wave.’ //

As one of my favorite bosses used to say at times like these, “Maybe we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop and we’re fighting with a one-legged man.” //

If this is the first wave, it is really no big deal and we need to man-up and work through any ‘second wave.’ If it is, as I suspect, actually the much-feared second wave, we need to start putting statisticians and public health officials up against walls for waging a war of aggression upon our nation.