There is an interesting graphic going around on Twitter. It appears to portray the levels and activities of civil uncoupling before open guerrilla warfare breaks out and we have a full-blown revolution happening. Here is the Tweet and the diagram.

This pic.twitter.com/ZWgWcO1rnA

— R.J.C. (@RJC_1776_USA) September 25, 2020

You can see the pyramid has multiple levels showing activities that take place before there is an open, armed revolt against the constituted government. /)

Back in the day, I used to teach this at the JFK Special Warfare Center at Fort Bragg. One thing that has stuck with me since that brief time in my life is a very hard truth and its even harder analog. The hard truth is that before the first guerrilla picks up a gun and kills a police officer or Soldier, the revolution or precursors to it, have been going for at least 10 years prior. Of course, the analog to that says that once you’ve defeated the insurgency, killed, captured, or jailed the leaders, there is still a decade or more of work to do to get back to a condition of popularly supported stability.

Over the next few days, we’ll explore the USASOC graphic. We will talk about what is happening and the part these activities play in a successful insurgency. As we all know, You can’t tell the players without a scorecard. To get at that info, we’ll rely on a bit of Latin, cui bono? Who benefits?