[I]n California, Biden beat Trump by 5± million votes (2020), whereas Clinton beat Trump by 4± million (2016). Doing the arithmetic, the contrast is 833,843 votes. (Statisticians call this the Difference of the Differences, or DoD.) Note that Trump increased his California vote total [from 2016 to 2020] by 1.5± million votes. However, Biden increased the Democrat candidate’s vote total by 2.3± million [from 2016]. Where did California find 3.8± million more votes in 2020 than in 2016? Easy, you say: California’s population has increased.
That’s a good thought, but between 2016 and 2020, the Census Bureau says that the population of California increase by less than 700,000 people. (Note that this includes children not old enough to vote, non-citizens, non-registered citizens, etc.). However, as mentioned above, the 2020 vote total for the Democrat candidate increased by 2.3± million votes. On the face of it, that significant vote increase does not appear to be logically explainable. //
Trump did better than expected in Ohio and Florida while also improving over 2016 in Louisiana, Alabama, and Utah, each of which counted their absentee ballots BEFORE Election Day (no counting of absentee votes afterward). In other words, whatever transpired during “the Great Pause” in counting “new” Biden votes was precluded from happening in those five states. Is that just a coincidence?
New York lost over 304,000 residents from 2016 to 2020, yet the state provided approximately 300,000 more votes for Biden in 2020 than expected. How is that possible when Trump increased his vote totals in 2020 by over 461,000 from 2016? //
California gained 700,000± in population from 2016 to 2020, but gained 6,000,000± registered voters. Not bloody likely no matter how big of a voter registration drive there was.
