There are some frank things that need to be said about the situation in Ukraine.

First, the Russians need to recognize that there is no military threat to their sovereignty. It’s a myth. Acknowledging this is the first step in the direction of the next wave of demobilization after World War II. That one-third of Russia’s expensive military machine is about as useful for the future as the Soviet military that hung on well after the Great Patriotic War was done. The bottom line remains that, “Analysis: Putin’s Dangerous Ukraine Brinksmanship Fantasy Needs to Stop”.

Second, both Europe and Russia need to recognize that economic opportunity is an asymmetric force to be dealt with that is more powerful than any army. In this regard, it is in the interest of Russia and the EU to see Ukraine not as a battleground of stubborn wills, but as an opportunity to testbed the integration of longstanding interests into something that will work across Eurasia.

In this regard, there is a case to be made for both sides to discuss a period of tension reduction experimentation with Ukraine being a positive beneficiary of process. The objective is to fill the donut hole of this hour with sweet filling instead of bitterness and anti-tank missiles. When spring comes, the land turns to wet bog, the troops on exercise return to their bases, and calmer heads have had time to assess what comes next, that’s when something productive can happen.

In the meantime, it’s okay to let the reflexive actions of the set-piece battles generals and politicians work themselves into a frenzy that ends with creating an outcome of “all quiet on the front.”

Third, Americans, not just government but ordinary people too, need to search our souls and ask: do we really want to be the ones that get blamed for turning Europe into a Forward Line of Troops (FLOT) that will have to give way to something where we are not needed, or wanted … again?

We Americans, and our bureaucrats, like the excitement of the moment. But, that may not actually be constructive to the long game.