Some experts are embracing the notion of a soft landing, the belief that recent interest rate hikes will translate into a modest decline in growth. However, such claims lack evidence. The history of the Federal Reserve and its monetary management doesn’t lend much credence to any soft-landing optimism.

The latest proof of that comes from economists Alex Domash and Lawrence Summers, who addressed these claims in a recent paper analyzing rate hikes since 1955. The scholars found there has never been a time in which high nominal wage growth and very low unemployment weren’t followed by a recession. Similarly, they looked at supposed soft landings (interest rate hikes that weren’t followed by a recession) in 1965, 1984, and 1994 and found these periods lacked the tight employment market we’re seeing today, making them hard to compare to the current economy.

Since the publication of that research in April 2022, the conditions discussed have taken a turn for the worse. Inflation has risen even more sharply despite recent rate hikes.