In South Africa, nearly every early case of Omicron was in fully vaccinated people, despite only 23.8% of the population being vaccinated at the time. While that data would suggest that vaccinated people are more likely to be infected with Omicron than the unvaccinated, I stopped short of saying that because it was still very early in the spread of Omicron and the data could change. What was clear, though, was that South Africa was in the midst of an outbreak of a new and more transmissible variant. //

With an astounding 1100% increase in cases, South Africa only had an 8.32% increase in deaths. Again, at the time, South Africa’s vaccination rate was below 25%. Meanwhile, the United States, with more than double the vaccination rate of South Africa, has nearly twice the new caseload and five times the rate of death from COVID than that of South Africa. That data would suggest that being vaccinated makes you more likely to be infected with Omicron than being unvaccinated. //

Now, data from a new study suggests negative effectiveness, that is the very thing Fauci warned as a potential: a higher likelihood of being infected with Omicron than if you had simply been unvaccinated, 90 days after being vaccinated. The study, entitled “Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: A Danish cohort study,” shows that both mRNA vaccines maintained a better than 50% effectiveness against previous variants of COVID-19, that effectiveness drops to nearly zero 60 days after the vaccine is administered and actually provides a negative response after 90 days. In fact, initial vaccine efficacy against Omicron for both vaccines tested was below that of the effectiveness against Delta after more than 90 days.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full //

When factoring for the confidence interval, both vaccines show a potential of causing negative effectiveness after 30 days, and the data show that only the Pfizer vaccine has results that indicate a positive effect for the first thirty days. Moderna’s vaccine consistently shows the potential of cause in negative results, that is, a higher likelihood of infection, from the date of vaccination forward.