The U.S. is slowly opening back up for business. But we’re far from coming out of this tunnel. About 20 million Americans remain unemployed compared to just six months ago.

Despite this sobering number, we can take heart in a silver lining: The U.S. will recover, and it’ll recover before China, the place of origin for the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Recovery can mean a lot of things. Generally speaking, let’s assume it’s a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of gross domestic product and regaining at least 80% of economic activity lost during the first half of 2020.