Given these factors, the pathway for NATO membership offered by Biden and NATO members could have two dangerous consequences for European and American security.

First, the assurance that Ukraine will join NATO after the war may extend this conflict and make peace negotiations much more difficult. As hard as it will be to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire or peace talks, the prospect of guaranteed NATO membership for Ukraine after the fighting ceases could make a settlement impossible and convince Putin to continue the war indefinitely. I see zero chance that Putin will agree to any settlement as long as it has been predetermined that Ukraine will join the alliance after the war.

Second, and even more serious, is the real possibility that, if a ceasefire could somehow be arranged and NATO membership for Ukraine followed, Putin would invade Ukraine again despite its membership in the alliance. Putin’s strong sensitivity about Ukraine joining NATO may mean he would not be deterred from attacking the country again if it became a member. Ukraine’s membership could even embolden him to attack. //

Because NATO membership for Ukraine is so provocative for Putin, this idea should be put on hold for an extended period, maybe 25 years. Such a decision by the United States and NATO members might open the door to peace talks.